Is the vine budburst date predictable

Scientists worked on this question in the 1960s and 70s. They succeeded in modelling this theoretical budburst date. In fact, it involves calculating the heat points accumulated by the vine on a logarithmic scale (averaging the points accumulated between the lowest and highest temperatures). These daily accumulated points are then summed from 1st January. Each grape variety requires a specific number of points to reach its budburst date. For Merlot, for instance, 1,250 points must be accumulated. Given the logarithmic scale, winter temperature spikes are the most concerning. The winter has been very mild, but fortunately for us, daytime temperatures have not risen too high over the last few days, preventing budburst from occurring too early. Otherwise, beware of spring frosts.